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The Debbie Downer Edition- The Downbeat #680

I HATE losing, really really badly. I hate that we have lost two in a row and six out of our last ten. I like when we win and it was much better when we had won seven out of eight. I hate that we are getting beaten by point guards. Any point guard, take your pick and this year he will be a Jazz Killer. (OK minus Fisher and inexplicably DWILL) When it was just Beaubois I didn't think much of it but when things start to trend, I start to worry. Last night Collison was the latest of the point guards to exploit the Jazz. You think they would have learned their lesson from playing Lin the night before but apparently not. Darren Collison had 24 points last night with 17 of those coming in the first half, he set the tone and the Jazz crumbled under the pressure. Yes the Jazz came back to take the lead but couldn't finish out the game.

The loss against Indiana hurts us in the standings.

Western_conference_standings_medium

Ninth place is bad. Clark warned us yesterday that we would fall out of the playoffs and well the Jazz listened to him and fell out they did. The Jazz dropped 4 spots with just one loss. Tuesday morning we were in 5th place and now we sit in 9th. We may get back into the playoffs before we play on Friday, who knows in the wild, wild, west.

More concerning to me then just a few losses in a row are the way we are losing. All teams go through slumps, but when we come out how we did against NY and then repeat that against Indiana for a half, its discouraging. I like to see effort and for six out of the last eight quarters of basketball, I haven't really seen it. Yay that that the two quarters of effort were the last two and hopefully the Jazz can build on that play.

Things can be worse. This day 37 years ago this happened:

On this date in 1975, the New Orleans Jazz got their first road win in franchise history, ending a 28 game road losing streak. The Jazz beat the Hawks in Atlanta 106-102 to improve their record to 7-44

Source: AP Sportlight/Associated Press

I guess the Jazz got the win on the road in 1975 but it took them 28 tries! Winning on the road takes time as a team. I know we are considered a "young team" but are we really? I mean four out of our five starters are not that young. So maybe its more about time together as a team and experience than actual age?

Did you know that the Jazz are 1-7 when their opponent scores 100+ points? ( the Pacers scored 104 yesterday) That is pretty dreadful stat. I wonder what happened to the amazing defense that we were seeing in January. I also wonder why we struggle in high-scoring games. Its curious to me since we are still a top 10 offensive team.

Another weird "finding' is that we are 3-3 in games that are decided by 3 points or less. I thought it would be worse than that for some reason . It seems like at the end of the game yesterday, against Toronto and against the Clippers we really didn't have plays to go to in the closing minutes of the game. Do the players shrink from the spotlight (they are 1-6 in nationally televised games)? Does Ty not have any end of close game plays or is it simply we lack a closer?

I miss when our players could do this: ( yes I am over the trade)


I know this a downer downbeat but if Amar can put picture of a train wreck in his game preview for how the Jazz are doing I can do a downer downbeat. Here is something happy just because we all do love the Jazz (thanks Prodigy/MemoisMoney)


So my question for today is:

Poll
Are the Jazz simply in a slump?
yes we will find our winning ways again soon
28 votes
no we lucked out at the beginning of the season with a lot of home games and games against teams without their star players
99 votes
maybe we'll know more after this weekend
48 votes
a combination of all the above: please explain your reasoning in the comments section
31 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  51 comments

Comments

Great. Now I'm going to have to think of another title for my DB on Friday

:)

How about the Deborah Downer Downbeat?
Negative Nancy?
Pessimistic Patty?
Nothing is worse

than being mediocre and getting lost in the grey area between contenders and teams with a realistic shot at landing a star in the lottery. This is my biggest fear as a Jazz fan. We are nothing more than a 7-8 seed at our best and yet our worst is probably a pick in the 10-14 range which knowing our organization will result in another guy on the pine. Look Raja has played better recently but no one cares any more. Josh Howard? Really? How is he part of any long term plans? #FreeAlecBurks. Finally I love both Millsap and Jefferson, I own a Sap jersey but in the harsh world of the NBA KOC needs to be opportunistic and right now Millsap’s value is at an all time high. If there are opportunities to make a trade with either one to create more time for Favors and get quality pieces back, it will suck, but it will be the right move. Its a bitter pill but the Jazz have to embrace their youth and commit to their success so we can avoid perpetual mediocrity.

i am worried about perpetual mediocrity also

I hate the idea of trading any of our bigs but if we can get a pass-first point guard out of it then I’d like it. I think we are just a pg away and a 3 point shooter away from being in the mix again.

PK said something interesting this morning.

He suggested that maybe KOC will push Ty’s hand by trading Jefferson for a 3-pt shooter. And as talented as Jefferson is and as much as I like him, it didn’t bother me that much. Harris can go too. If Ty isn’t going to give our youngsters the development time they need & is going to keep 2 of them on the bench for entire games, maybe KOC does need to pull a Billy Beane move.

Wouldn't it be opposite of Billy Beane?

Billy Beane traded away a young promising rookie to make Art Howe play the vet, because Billy wanter to win now.

The main issue is

that Millsap’s value is far greater than anything Jefferson could get us. At 14 million per year there aren’t many shooters paid in that range. Trading Sap hurts us as fans, but it might be the right move for the team. I actually doubt many teams would be willing to take Jefferson at all until next year when his contract expires. I also want to note that it does KOC no good to trade for a shooter if he won’t even bother to try to resign them. (See Korver).

The books out on Jefferson

I think most teams around the league have a good idea of who Jefferson is, and that he doesn’t contribute much to a winning cause long term. As such, I doubt the Jazz will be able to move him for anything useful, whereas Millsap could bring back a quality player.

I agree that both Raja and Howard are not much help long term, or even short term sometimes (Howard was guarding Granger during his 12 point 4th last night). I support the free Burks campaign, and I say let the improved efficiency CJ play more.

Improved efficiency CJ?

He is shooting 39.4% from the floor and 28.4% on 3s, while his assists and rebounds are also both down. Plus he took awful shots in both of the last 2 games that really hurt the team. I don’t think CJ is all that efficient.

I don't think it is

The problem is, he’s a very limited player, and he can only be useful in a very specific situation. He’s like Rajon Rondo, for example. Because of the space teams give him, Rondo needs to have very good shooters around him and a wide diversity of plays to be effective. When he has that, though, he plays like a top 5 PG, IMO. Dwight Howard is similar, too. He’s always had good shooters around him, so he hasn’t had much trouble, but if he were on a team with a collective 3pt% below 30, he would have a lot of trouble on offense.

Jefferson can’t be effective on a team with such horrible shooting. If the Jazz had efficient 3pt shooters who also moved the ball, Jefferson’s production would be similar to what we got from Boozer on offense, stats-wise. And if the Jazz could get those pieces, their offense would be outstanding, as they’d have consistent threats from all over the floor: Low post(Al), high post(Sap), mid-range(Sap) and long range(whoever they get).

I’m not saying it’s realistic to think we could get all those pieces without giving up Millsap. My point is that Al is fully capable of being a very effective player on offense for a contending team. He just needs to be in very specific circumstances to be able to do so.

He'd take more shots than Boozer did

but his efficiency would be similar.

Well, you know what I mean.

Trading the player your coach won’t stop playing even though he’s not part of the plan.

I know, I was just joking. I also think you might be right.

I would trade CJ right now just to open up minutes for Burks.

Really?

To me, it would depend a lot on what we can get in return. Burks needs his minutes, but they should come from Raja’s, not CJ’s. Raja hasn’t played well enough to be playing that much, and CJ is our most capable offensive wing that doesn’t have confidence issues.

Yes really.

Neither of them are playing well enough to get the minutes they get and I would be ok trading Raja too, but CJ is in the 4th straight year with his FG% and 3pt% dropping and he isn’t rebounding or passing and he isn’t as good on D as Hayward, Howard, and Raja. CJ is in the last year of his deal so he is easier to trade than Raja, and Raja is the only guy on the team that can hit 3s right now, so as of today I would trade CJ.

please do something KOC

too many young guys, not enough PT.

Memphis was there

I don’t think that’s true. I agree with most of your points about playing time and trading Millsap, but it’s possible to become a contender after being stuck in the middle.

To be a contender you have to be more than a 1-2 year flash of decency

It takes years for teams to build up to their potential.

Memphis hasn’t yet shown they’re anything but a 1-year 8th seed high. They’re not exactly showing improvement this year.

It seems to me that the Jazz need to figure what their best lineup is to close out games. Also, it seems like the Jazz don't have any good three point plays at the end of games (or anyone who can make 3-point shots at end of games).

We have seen all season that Jazz’s starting lineup is certainly not their best lineup for closing out games most nights—either offensively or defensively. And, I suppose the best closing lineup may change from game-to-game, depending on who is playing well and who is not.

Last night, in the last three minutes or so, the Jazz went from a 93-92 lead to losing the game 104-99—a 12 to 6 run in Indiana’s favor to close out the game. We have seen similar things all season in games that were close at the end—with teams the Jazz should have beaten.

Also, last night, with the Jazz down 104-99 with 10 seconds left, it would have seemed that the Jazz would have had all of their best 3 point shooters in the game, and that they would set up a play for a quick 3-pointer. Rather, Watson got the ball at the top of the key, and even though he was open, hesitated to take the 3-point shot, then drove down the key, and the Jazz volleyed the ball around until the clock ran out—not a good closing play of the game. I remember in a couple of other games when a 3-point shot seemed to be called for, but noone even got open for a 3-point shot.

Perhaps that closer player is not yet on the Jazz, and the Jazz will have to struggle through another season (just like the end of the season last year), without a “closer” or a decent closing lineup. Our best closing player right now seems to be Paul Millsap, and oftentimes he doesn’t get any respect from the referees, so if there is contact on a play involving Millsap at the end of a game, he usually misses the shot and there is a “no call,” and the game is over.

I am hoping the Jazz will rectify this issue either at the trade deadline or in the off season.

there is a lot of fumbling the ball around at the end of games

my question is why take out Favors and Hayward when they were the guys getting the lead. Seems like once Ty put Al in again (not an Al hater at all) we lost all the momentum.
It was the same way against toronto with Harris and Watson. Watson did all the work and Harris finished the game and we lost.
So the question is Jefferson/Harris never going to be closers or is Ty just using our personnel incorrectly? Does Ty not have any plays? Its weird because it seems that Jerry did.

Diana I love most of what you say, but what are you talking about?

Al has historically been our best clutch player. He did stink last night down the stretch, but he has been one of the best percentage shooters in the NBA in those situations. If you go by the numbers you put Al in the game. In the Toronto game we didn’t have Al down the stretch and it hurt us, because they could defend Favors with Linus.

I think at times Earl has been better than Harris and derserves to finish out games, but the Toronto game was the exact opposite. Harris played very well and Earl struggled that night. Harris was a +12 on the floor that night and Watson was a -17. I much prefer Earl right now, but that was a bad example.

i guess i am remembering the toronto game wrong, maybe I was thinking of a diff game

when ty substitued harris and watson, I am sorry you are right our bench was horrible against the Raptors I don’t know how I forgot that

I do like Al I like him a lot. I just think sometime as a team we stand around and expect him to do everything we had gotten away from that but last night reminded me so much of last season where Al had to do everything on his own.
I just noticed a momentum swing but maybe it was just me.

I do feel bad about my comment about the raptors game, I’ll try to think of what game I am thinking of.

I think you hit it right on the head here.

Down the stretch our guys threw the ball to Al and stopped moving. Maybe that is Big Al’s fault, but with as well as he has been passing lately, I looked at that more as a problem with the other guys not moving. But I agree with you, that it was a momentum swing there and maybe we should have stuck with Favors. All I was saying is that you can’t fault Ty by going with the numbers.

I think a part of it is also the game plan

The Jazz obviously don’t always do this, but sometimes the plan is to throw it into Al in the post and get out of his way for him to do his thing.

yes that too

when I was at the Memphis game Ty did call for that sometimes

yep

Al has shown a much better ability/willingness to pass out of bad situations. The stagnant offense no longer is to be blamed on Al. The rest of the team needs to move and cut and screen.

very much agreed

but what changed the last few games from January?

off the ball movement
Yes, but why?

Just laziness?

i know that is my question
ah

yea that’s the million dollar question isn’t it. I think its lack of effort and over confidence in the likes of Al and Sap.

as far as lack of effort I think transition points can give us a little insight. teamrankings.com says the Jazz average 17.3 fast break points on the year. 18.2 at home. But in the last 3, only 14.7.

I think Earl should have taken that three

I would have really enjoyed it if he’d pump faked to get Collison off his feet and then taken the shot. It wasn’t any lower in percentage than the one Al forced up.

4

Seeing SWARM makes me miss SWARM

2

I’m really against worrying about playoff positioning (or whether the Jazz are in or out as of right now) when there are still 40 games left. The playoffs do not start today, so whether the Jazz would be in or out as of today makes no difference whatsoever. That is not to say that games aren’t important right now. Utah needs all the wins they can get, but playoff position one-third of the way into a season when millions of possible scenarios are yet to play out seems foolish.

I think the run to the playoffs will be crazy from here on out

We’ll see daily movement, teams in and out of the spots, etc. jut because there are 11 decent teams in the West (12 if you count Phoenix, which is playing improved lately).

you're right

thats why the NY and toronto losses really hurt and last night after coming back just to give it away.

PnR is killing us

Jazz are trying to force teams baseline, but teams are often getting to the middle by using picks, forcing a big guy (usually Big Al) to either leave his man or to try to cover the guard with the ball. If he sticks with his man, the guard gets to the basket or gets an open jumper. If he leaves his man, he may get beat anyway, or Millsap is forced to rotate over to Al’s guy and finds himself overmatched (as well as Millsap is playing, he still struggles guarding bigger guys).

so sloan always wanted players to force to the middle

now we are forcing baseline and we are still having defensive issues… at some point is it just the players? Or do we still have system issues with our defense?

To a certain degree, it's the players

Forcing baseline is helpful, but it’s not always easy, particularly when you have to deal with a screener. Sometimes the offense dictates that the ball will go to the middle, unless you throw an extra defender in and leave another player open.

The Millsap/Jefferson combo is just not good in PnR situations. Jefferson doesn’t defend the PnR well and teams know they can force a mismatch by making Millsap guard a bigger guy when he rotates over. Kanter and Favors are a little bit better at this, and using more lineups that have one of the young bigs paired with one of the vets more often may help mitigate it a little bit.

THE JAZZ NEED A SOLID/RELIABLE 3 POINT SHOOTER!! (That can play D)

They are damn near last in the league in 3’s.

A solid shooterwould OPEN the middle of the paint every time for Big Al/Millsap/Favors/Kanter. Bread & butter.

Trade Devin Harris/ CJ Miles (Been tooo streaky & inconsistent) for ?

Bring back Kyle Kover!!! (Yeah right., too late now). Who else is out there?

Jazz’ guards on ‘D’ make a lot of other teams’ mediocre player look like All Stars.
Not cool. Stockton is rolling over in his shorts!!

Maybe Gordan Hayward will grow out of his diapers & not tremble every time he has an open shot? He could be a great 3 point shooter, if he really wanted to…

You do Realize Kyle Korver only solves half of the problem in your title?

It is frustrating that we don’t have a D specialist that can hit 3’s like Raja used to do. They seem to be fairly common on other teams.

Or maybe we do have one? Alec Burks has been touted as a Corner pimp because of his prowess (according to Chauncey Billups) He is one of the better rookies defensively. What’s that you say? 4 DNP CD’s in how many games? Why did we even draft him?

As usual, everyone needs to calm down.

This is the exact same team that three weeks ago was being lauded by everyone on this site. Expectations were clearly too high at the beginning of the season when our record was probably a little better than it should have been.

I believe KOC is a one of the best GMs in the league right now, so I am sure he has been exploring our options.

My dream scenario would be for Bell and Howard to be traded to free up some time for Burks. And our large trade exception used to acquire Anthony Marrow. Im not sure im willing to split up or front court just yet, but I wouldn’t be too upset if Al or Milsap was traded to free up some time for our young bigs who have clearly shown that they can play more minutes. Make it happen KOC!

It should have been titled "The Diana Downer Edition"
Thanks. I'm sad.

Now I miss Deron Williams. With his attitude towards Sloan and the media is what also made him great. He wanted to win. He did whatever it took to win. We have no one on our team that makes that same play that Dwill did.

The Jazz are bad, and I've always said it.

A team with no shooting can’t win. I know our defense is the bigger problem, but there’s no way to really have a good defensive team without very good defensive players(especially interior defenders that don’t hurt the team on offense, which are very hard to find) or a good defensive system(not just basic,common defensive principles). If the Jazz want to win, they have to do it with offense, because improving the defense would require firing the head coach or making some big trades. They had the chance to acquire the shooters the team needed to really take advantage of the Al-Millsap combo, but they didn’t. Now, the team’s defense is as bad as it’s supposed to be, and the offense will continue to be good, but not enough for the team to get into the playoffs or even finish above .500

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