You know the NBA adage that the regular season doesn't matter? Not true in the good old Western Conference.
The tenth place team in the Western conference currently has a .556 winning percentage. .579 is the 8th seed. In old-school 82-game lingo, that's 46 wins in 10th, 48 wins for 8th seed. And 11th place Minnesota (sitting at 8-10, or .444) would be 7th place in the East. In this season's numbers, about 38 wins will get you the 8th seed.
Business as usual in the West.
Two weeks ago it wasn't like this. Memphis was below .500, for example. But things have evened out and 10 quality teams (11 if you include the Peskies) are going to slug it out for 8 playoff spots. The Jazz currently sit at 5th place: 2 games behind second place Denver and 1 game ahead of the 10th place Rockets. It's going to be a wild ride to the playoffs starting right now.
Because of #1, when you lose because Jose Calderon hits a shot at mid-court with the shot clock winding down, it's going to be a tough loss. Or when Linas Kleiza torches you. Again. Or when Earl just doesn't have it. Or when Howard and Hayward combine to go 1-14.
However, losses happen. The Mavs lost to the Peskies last night. The real issue is consistency. Most of us know about the advanced stats Hollinger has put together for goth teams and playoffs. Millsap currently ranks 5th in the league in PER. Hollinger's automated PowerRankings have the Jazz at #14, just behind the Blazers and just above the Rockets. His Playoff odds project Utah at 37 wins and the #8 seed—and a 67% chance of making the playoffs.
A newer kid on the Advanced Stats block is a group called numberFire. They created what they call NERD Rankings for both players and teams. You can read an explanation of them here. These rankings (calculated before to last night's loss) put the Jazz at #7, project 41 wins and a 47% chance of making the playoffs. Their player rankings put Millsap as the 8th most efficient player in the league. These rankings say that Paul + 4 average players should end up at 15 games over .500 (in an 82-game season). So basically Paul Millsap, according to their data, is personally responsible for every game above .500 the team is right now.
Which rankings are most accurate? Whichever says our team and our players are the best, right?
David Locke perfectly framed the Young Player Conundrum in his "Emptying the Noggin" after the game. Speaking of Hayward and Favors:
[Their youth and inconsistency] is what makes it so tough to give these minutes to these guys.
Neither Gordon or Derrick has much of any experience in these circumstances, this is the growing process and those minutes are more valuable than others.
I think Locke harps on Favors unnecessarily (he didn't set the world on fire, but he played very decently). But the point remains: the kids will make mistakes in these circumstances that may cost wins. At the same time, those specific opportunities will have greater benefit to their long-term future (and the team's long-term future) than any other playing time.
I don't think anyone doubts that if Hayward reaches his potential, his all-around-game would make him the best wing on the team. I also don't think anyone doubts that Favors can become a monster offensively and defensively. And I hope we can all agree that the team is better off if they can get there sooner than later.
I'm glad Ty's giving them reasonable chances, even on off-nights. Hopefully these guys can be more successful as the opportunities continue to come.
The Jazz definitely missed Al Jefferson last night. In crunch time they had on the floor: a guy who air-balled another three and missed 3-4 free throws, a guy who was terrified to shoot, a guy who was a fan punching bag for about 92 straight games, a guy the refs hate, and Paul Millsap.
I've been one of Al's harshest critics, but there's no doubt he's improved a ton since even the start of this season. One more guy with the ability to score and make good decisions (without worrying and fretting like Gordon) could have made the difference against the Raps. Millsap can't do it all himself—even if he is the PF Terminator.
Let's hope Al's not out too long.
I love living in a Twitter world in which we get to hear from players after the games. I know there's newspaper quotes, but it's fun to hear from our heroes without being pressed for a response—particularly after big wins and losses and see they feel just like us:
Postscript: I had a crazy Jazz dream two nights ago:
The Jazz made the playoffs and their first round opponent was the Kings. In the first game the Jazz simply could NOT hit a shot. And the Kings could NOT get a rebound. It was the same over and over: Jazz shoot, miss, get rebound ... repeat. Millsap couldn't score. Al couldn't. Hayward couldn't. Nobody could.
Except Favors did score twice. But the Jazz rebounded those made shots and the Kings still couldn't get the ball. It got to the middle of the second quarter with the Jazz leading 4-0. Favors threw up a shot, and it missed (of course). But suddenly Ty's assistant coach Jerry Sloan came out of nowhere, rebounded the ball, and went back up to make the layup. He looked at the Jazz players and told them "That's how you f****** do it!"
While the refs huddled together and debated whether the points should count, Sloan walked up to DeMarcus Cousins and punched him in the face. The refs decided to allow Sloan's points because it was so awesome to see him send Cousins to the ground, and each ref gave Jerry a firm handshake.
And then I woke up.
2 recs | 61 comments
=> Our guards and forwards seem so scared to even attempt a 3 pointer. Is Ty against 3 pointers just like Sloan was?
=> Kanter needs some dunking lesson. From Europe is not a good excuse.
=> Need to practice free throws. I cringe every time Jazz players attempt a FT.
=> With game on the line, down by 3 and 2 seconds to go, I want Milsap to take the 3 more than anybody else on the team.
5. I like their attitude. Hope we see some result on the court.
Soupe - January 26, 2012
=> Kanter needs some dunking lesson. From Europe is not a good excuse.
From the pointless rant department…
Dude played like five minutes last night and had a hammer dunk.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I thought he had 2
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
I think most players develop that reluctance to shoot on their own.
I know when I’ve launched 10 shots and only made one, I kinda don’t want to shoot again, especially if my teammates are shooting well.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
I am one of Gordie's biggest fans. . .
but it might be time to bring him off the bench until he “finds himself” again. I keep waiting. . . and waiting. . . and waiting for him to show up and at least give me glimpses of what he was at the end of last year.
Harris played like his all-star year in the first quarter and then Poof, dissappeared. Then the 1 of 4 at the end put me in agony. Wow.
Hestari - January 26, 2012
re: Poof
Puzzling decision from Corbin to sit Harris for nearly 12 minutes of actual game time (from ~4:00 min. left in 1st to 4:00 left in second). This loss wan’t on Harris, he was great last night
hk47 - January 26, 2012
From Hollinger's chat today
Del (Hollywood)
Gorden Hayward will be an allstar if he ever gets aggressive offensively!
John Hollinger
(12:35 PM)
I don’t think so, but he’s a really frustrating player to watch right now. Last night he reverted to his rookie year pick-and-nothing play, when they do a pick-and-roll and he neither turns the corner, nor hits the roll man, nor shoots the J, but merely wastes half the shot clock before leaving a flaming bag on Devin Harris’s doorstep. He’s a heck of an athlete but his instincts for the game aren’t great.
Shiner Bock - January 26, 2012
Great analysis. Happened often. Hayward in the middle of the paint with quite a bit of space and he kicks it out to Harris.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
That dream is the best thing I’ve ever read. Everyone in my class just looked at me weird, cause I was laughing so hard.
dunkface - January 26, 2012
I want to know what he ate before bed that night.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
Or should I say... consumed...
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
That dream is awesome!
And on 3 I agree completely. Great DB.
SurlyMae - January 26, 2012
I think Jazz fans this year should have this slogan:
Overtime: Where the improbable kills us.
Seriously, all the daggers rain from impossible shots. I mean that Leandro barbosa layup last night, That ridiculous shot from Calderon. and in the LA game Pau Gasol making that three. It sucks to see as a Jazz fan. But still, it shouldn’t have mattered. The refs gave us every opportunity to win that game from the line and we blew it.
Kfunk - January 26, 2012
Dare I say that this game is the start of something bad?
We play at Dallas next, and I know our team really wants revenge. Even without Dirk, they will be a tough team to beat.
TurboJazz224 - January 26, 2012
Favors
I will admit I’m one of the biggest Favors homers around. I just did not see what Locke was talking about when he referred to Favors playing a really bad game. I thought it was quite good. Obviously it wasn’t an All-Star type performance but what more can you expect from a 20 year old? Almost every time we needed a stop or a point and didn’t get one it seemed like Favors was right there on the boards getting the rebounds whenever we badly needed them. Feel free to point out to me what was so terrible about his game but I just didn’t see it.
BigGreen - January 26, 2012
Agree with you
I thought Favors was a monster on the boards last night. I thought he played well. Locke’s a moron
hk47 - January 26, 2012
it's not that he played bad
its that hes a little one dimensional at this point, he doesnt have a strong post game like al, or a jump shot you need to really worry about.
hes just not the scoring option that big al is at this point.
handlogten - January 26, 2012
Also doesn't have very good spacing on offense yet.
Great vision sometimes though. Or maybe they’re set plays. Either way, he hits cutters fairly well for a guy who doesn’t get many assists.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
Of course he isn't the post player Al is
But, you have the hope he develops an inside game, and that comes with time, experience and work. He rebounded well and had a couple of post-move baskets. Overall, he’s coming along nicely.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
A post game imo should be something he can develop 3-5 years into his career
If anything he should work on his jump shot, his dribbling, and his face up game. Hes already fast, and athletic enough to get by his man on the low block. Some of his attempts yesterday when he was going strong to the rim was snuffed out, or the ball would get stripped from his hands. If defenders can respect his jump shot he can easily pump fake them and take it strong to the hole
EcERyda69 - January 26, 2012
moral losses/wins
that was a huge loss. I was very dissapointed in our bench.
Now that thats off my chest, it’s interesting watching Corbin grow as a coach. In hindsight this was a coaches loss. where was CJ and why did our starters sit so long.
Favors is a great defender!!!! Anybody that doesn’t think so watch our second unit without him.
Al would have helped win this game. Casey the Raps coach had his team double Sap when nobody else could score. with Al they couldn’t have doubled Sap so easily and he would have somebody to pass to that could score.
i think we have all had dreams like that only usually I come in and hit a three.
neds - January 26, 2012
more rant
I think Corbin has been outcoached a few times this season. but I’m not sure it’s him and not his assistants. I believe Sloan is one of the greatest coaches ever but I think Phil had a ton to do with that. His assistants might not see what is going on the way they should or they are not giving advise when they should.
neds - January 26, 2012
I dont have any stats on it
But it seems like the bench dominates when Favors is in with them and really struggles when Favors is not in with the 2nd group. It’s amazing how much he can affect the games coming off the bench without showing anything in the box score. I was in the “trade Al” club before the season and especially after the 76ers game but I’m not so sure about that now. Winning seems really nice.
BigGreen - January 26, 2012
I actually agree with you neds
I thought Corbin was badly outcoached last night. I’m a little worried that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. He sat Harris way too long. Should have subbed Hayward out for Miles. And as you said, left the second unit in way too long, allowing the 18 point lead to disappear. Also, doesn’t seem familiar with the concept of a time out used to break the opponent’s run of points.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I worry that outside of Corbin
Where is the coaching experience on this staff. Hornacek was the part time shooting coach? And Scott Layden, Ay, caramba! I would posit that Layden had the easiest coaching job in the league under Sloan/Johnson, just don’t eff anything up. I fail to see what he brings to the table with them gone.
Anyway, I just worry that Corbin’s staff is a little weak.
tyrantking - January 26, 2012
Lowe seems to be the right hand man right now, and justifiably so. Only one with real, effective coaching experience.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
I think scotty and horny do most of the pregame planning and prep work. Somebody needs to pay more attention to how the game is developing and
telladvise corbin to call a timeout or get so and so out of the game.neds - January 26, 2012
1. i will not be mad if we finish the season like we did in D-Will’s first year. Miss the playoffs by a little, improve a lot as a team though. Still get a lotto pick (Ronnie Brewer was a starter for us for many many games)
2. I think there is no perfect stat yet . . . but people are still working on it
3. Locke is an interesting guy. Who he loves and who he hates follows a strict, internally consistent formula — one he does not usually share with others.
4. I was on the “trade Al” bandwagon during the off-season/lockout. and then i wrote down what teams need to have on the floor, in order to win games. and our current team did not have a “first option”, a “post player”, and “a guy who elicits double teams” outside of Big Al. And last night we saw exactly what we would miss if we traded him away.
5. I love how athletes on twitter can express themselves directly, and perhaps a bit more honestly. (not true for all ballers, Lebron’s tweets are written by an ad agency, and Kanter’s tweets are written by someone who understands how to spell)
AllThatJazzBasketball - January 26, 2012
Al is huge for this team.
The best part is he’s still getting better.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
5 Loved the enthusiasism and determination of the young guns
Hope we take it to Dallas and murk them.
Def a dissapointing loss. I’m really starting to think Hayward needs to come off the bench until he finds himself. His shot has been off all year, and its really hurting our starting unit.
Bebop - January 26, 2012
Losing sucks.
But for some reason this one really didn’t bother me too much. This is really how I expected our team to play this whole season and anything before this game has been a treat. I think it was especially a great growing experience for Favors having to try and manage fatigue in a close game playing big minutes. I think he will grow a lot from it.
I still miss seeing Erik Burks out there! Who knows, maybe he could have helped break down the defense and get something going in both overtimes.
BigGreen - January 26, 2012
Now it's Erik with a 'k', huh?
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
Yep, just like Erik the Red.
BigGreen - January 26, 2012
Reading between Yucca's lines:
In crunch time they had on the floor: a guy who air-balled another three and missed 3-4 free throws, Harris
a guy who was terrified to shoot Hayward
a guy who was a fan punching bag for about 92 straight games Bell
a guy the refs hate,…Favors???
I’d actually like to hear Yucca’s take on his boy Hayward. I know he’s been disappointed with his play this year. Who isn’t? And he was brutal again last night. Additionally, it seems the ball tends to gravitate to him as the shot clock runs down. This isn’t a good thing. He does look terrified to shoot. Who could blame him? He has no confidence at all at this point.
This team has nobody that can make a 3-pointer when it counts, except for Paul Millsap. No surprise they are at the bottom of the league in 3 pointers made and 3P%.
I liked what CJ did last night. Took the ball to the hoop, and even when he missed, he was getting shots at the rim. Is he finally getting it, or is this another CJ abberation? In other words, has he finally figured out he’s a horrific shooter. But, he should have been in at crunch time, not Hayward. This was clear to everyone except Ty Corbin.
Howard gave the Jazz nothing last night.
I liked what I saw from Favors last night. David Locke be damned. Got all the rebounds that mattered. Showed some additional skill offensively (post moves). He looks taller and thicker to me. Is he still growing?
I agree they missed Al, but that really only showed up in crunch time when Millsap was the only option. I thought Amir Johnson really put the clamps on him in the end of the 1st and in the 2nd OT. Did a better job on ’Sap than Bargnani did.
James Johnson is a shot-blockin’ foo.
Kleiza is clearly a Jazz-killer. Boy, he’s irritating. He was cocky last night, but he had a right to be…hit some huge shots.
Calderon hit some prayers, but he’s a good offensive player and nice distributor. I think probably underrated. Defensively, he couldn’t stay in front of Harris.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I don't like to fault the officials when that seems like a cop-out
But they made some brutal calls last night- both ways, but mostly in favor of the Raptors. An offensive foul on Kanter (his 3rd) seemed especially harsh. And the play where the ball appeared to everyone, to go off DeRozan, they looked at instant replay and promptly decided the ball would go to Toronto.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
The Toronto feed showed it like 22 times, and the parts they showed had DeRozan inbounds throwing it off Favors's leg.
It might have gone out of bounds before that though.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
That's what I was referring to, is I thought the ball bounced on the end line
hk47 - January 26, 2012
off of DeRozan before he threw it off Favors
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I don't think it hit the line
If you watched the shadow it never touched the line hence the ball just missed it.
neds - January 26, 2012
* I guess that was Kanter's second foul, I think the Bolerjack said 3rd in the broadcast
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I'll do a big write-up on Hayward in the next couple of days.
I’ve been thinking about it, and since there’s some interest I’ll go for it.
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
I'll also say right now
While Gordon obviously has no confidence in his shot at the moment, it’s still nothing compared to what I saw in Raja when I went to the Memphis game.
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
Really? It looks about the same to me.
Both reluctant to shoot, neither confident. Hayward still contributes in other ways though, but from a set offense perspective, the way they act seems fairly similar.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
And in the 2nd OT, with Harris, Bell and Heyward on the perimeter
None of them had any confidence in firing off a jump shot.
hk47 - January 26, 2012
Can Hayward be sent to the D-League?
If I’ve ever seen a guy who could be helped by a D-League trip, it’s him right now.
Harris should have taken it to Calderon at the end of the 4th and in both overtimes. He had 5 fouls and didn’t want to foul out. Missed opportunity.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
Can Hayward be sent to the D-League? Yes
Should he…HELL NO!
EcERyda69 - January 26, 2012
Hayward needs to continue to play to his strengths. the coaches should be showing him film of where his shot is available. I think he’ll come around. He gets playing time because he is not a liability on defense.
neds - January 26, 2012
He isnt.
Hayward is underrated as a defender.
EcERyda69 - January 26, 2012
I realize it's not conventional, but neither is Dirk sitting out games to work on his conditioning.
I really think Hayward’s issue is confidence, and dominating some D-League “talent” could be exactly what he needs to get back. They do it in MLB , optioning young guys to the minors to get hitting back on track.
I tend to think that playing w/ the 2nd unit would help too. Playing with Watson and Favors could help get him the ball in the right spots for better shots.
And I’m not saying they should send him to the D-League, but I’m really not sure that keeping the status quo is working. He doesn’t seem to be breaking out of his slump on his own. They’ve gotta change something, in my opinion.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
Nice DB, Yucca.
Well written, concise, impartial (or at least not strongly opinionated), and entertaining.
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
I'm trying to do better
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
Yucca you should shut up.
Shut up.
Just shut up.
Sorry, this is a fun game to play.
AllThatJazzBasketball - January 26, 2012
I was a little concerned that was going to end with "... you had me at hello"
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
HA!
rec’d. also, choked on my mtn. dew from laughing.
Shums - January 26, 2012
I can hear it now:
yucca, you’re writing pure fantasy stuff, how can guys get rebounds off their own makes, jerry sloan was never ty’s asstitnant, and the kigs will never make the playoffs this year, so how can they play the jazz in the first round, so shut up
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
The Jazz didn't lose to Toronto because Calderon hit a long three, it was because Millsap will never be an all star and isn't worth 15 wins, so shut up
JazzHype - January 26, 2012
This wins
:)
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
And the dude with the naked lady avitar talked to Deron again last night, and he still hates you Yucca
hk47 - January 26, 2012
I just can't win :)
Yucca Man - January 26, 2012
Great downbeat. I was at the game and I think you hit everything perfect. Good job.
BobbyD31 - January 27, 2012
Do I have a button?
Yucca Man - February 15, 2012
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