By now there is a good chance you have read the articles on the Utah Jazz's playoff chances written by Sports Illustrated's Zach Lowe and by the writing heads at ESPN. Lowe wonders aloud if the Jazz are contenders to make the playoffs, admitting he'd be pleasantly surprised if the Jazz did make the playoffs, but mentioning reasons they may not. You can read more about his reasons, but is a really well written piece from an outside perspective. I have to admit that I agree with everything he mentions. A couple of ESPN writers, including John Hollinger discuss why they believe the Jazz won't be able to sustain their winning ways and their reasoning is also sound, although it didn't keep Matt Harpring from twitterally abusing Hollinger yesterday. "Winning will trump all skeptics!"
Twitter me this: Do you believe the Jazz will be able to keep their winning ways? You can call me a bad fan, but I have my doubts. I'm just trying to be practical. But I am thoroughly enjoying the way the team is playing right now. They are playing good basketball and wins are wins and right now the playoff standings say the Jazz are winners. Let's hope it keeps up.
One of the reasons I remain skeptical is because the Jazz have had a pretty easy schedule thus far. I don't think there is any way around that fact. Take a look at the schedules in February and March for instance.
Lots of road games and lots of good teams. I'd love for the Jazz to prove me (and many others) wrong, but I see some losing streaks in the future.
The main reason for the Jazz's success is Paul Millsap's play this year. Millsap isn't only playing like an all-star; he is playing like a superstar. Millsap is currently 7th in the league in PER, a statistical measure developed by Hollinger that compares players' overall offensive value. It is one of the best advanced statistical models that allows players to be compared to one another, in my opinion. Millsap has a PER of 26.01 (an average player scores a 15 and the league leader is Lebron James with 33.74). Before this season Millsap has never finished a season with a PER rating greater than 20. Millsap has improved rebounding and cut his turnovers and increased his usage, or possessions. And he's done all of this while shooting a career low percentage from the free throw line.
Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and to a degree, Alec Burks have been fantastic off the bench. Earl Watson has been the leader of the second unit. Gordon Hayward is coming along and Raja Bell is looking like a competent starter again. And Al Jefferson has made improvements to his game and has become an improved defender, but like Lowe mentions, Jefferson has been a very similar player offensively to last year. But Paul Millsap has improved his PER by almost 7 points in one season. For reference sakes, 7 points is the difference between Chris Kaman and Dirk Nowitzki offensively. Or Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook. Or Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Durant. If Mllsap can keep this production up...
I feel like Utah Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor has been more open in his interviews lately, but it might just be me. But he said interesting things in his last two interviews, one on The Fan tv station and one on 1320 KFAN yesterday. You can find the video here and the audio to 1320 here.
In the TV interview, O'Connor mentioned a very specific way the Jazz could use the Okur trade exception, by combining it with the rights of a previously drafted European player, say Ante Tomic, to bring back a player essentially for free. If you remember, the Jazz acquired European player Peter Fehse in the Eric Maynor trade. I still think the Jazz are more likely to use their trade exception on draft day this summer, but I thought O'Connor's specific mention of European players was interesting. O'Connor also mentioned that the Jazz could use the trade exception on restricted free agents, if another team signed the free agent and subsequently traded that player to the Jazz.
I don't see Denver helping the Jazz, but a player like Wilson Chandler is a restricted free agent I could live with on the Utah Jazz.
If the Jazz make the playoffs this year, they will be forced to give their own 1st round pick to Minnesota as part of the Al Jefferson trade. For simplification, let's assume that Golden State protects their pick by finishing in the bottom 7 teams. While it would be nice to make the playoffs, it would be hard to lose out on having a 1st round pick in this upcoming draft. Some SLCDunkers have already discussed what I like to call "The Jazz Fan's Dilemma." Today's poll question after the jump:
0 recs | 47 comments
1/2 I'm with you
I have my doubts not in a “the sky is falling, Debbie Downer” way, but in a realistic, practical way. I expect the Jazz from the beginning of the year to make a few more appearances when the going gets tough in Feb. and Mar. Rookies will hit walls and sophomores will slump. I think we’ll see both highs and lows as the season progresses.
moni - January 17, 2012
It's just a brutal schedule at the beginning of February & end of March.
I have the Jazz losing 8 in a row, from Feb 2 at GSW on a back to back all the way through Feb 14, losing at OKC on a back to back to back. I have them losing 8 of 10 from Mar 18 @ LAL on a back to back through Apr 2 @ Portland.
If they can recover mentally from that incredibly tough stretch and not get down and get wins against the teams they should be beating, they could certainly make a run for the playoffs. A lot of it will come down to stealing wins at the end of March and through April. Mar 26 at New Jersey on a back to back is a good example. I have it as a loss, but it’s the kind of game like the @ GSW game they won on 1/7 where they can steal a game.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I think we’ll learn more about this Jazz team tonight, but really we won’t know the full story until February when they start hitting the road. It is nise to see them passing the ball more and playing better defensively, though. I would say that mostly this bodes well for Corbin’s future. It shows that the players are actually making strides in their development.
BlackandGold4ever - January 17, 2012
Chris Paul is still out, isn't he? I think the Jazz should win this one.
LAC is on a back to back. Should help the Jazz’s cause.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
We are not the team we saw at the beginning of the year
I’m not going to say we are a great team that can contend or go deep in the playoffs, but I do not think we will regress very much come feb and march. I realize our schedule gets tougher and road heavy, but this team does well in areas that produce wins.
Recently, the jazz have been doing much better at rebounding the ball and playing tough defense. It seems we have ironically become the tough nosed defensive Sloan team we have had the reputation of being the last several years. I don’t believe our defense and rebounding will regress. If we were winning games by having our shooters on hot streaks, it would be different. We are winning games by grinding through them. I think we will be a tough team to play this year. Nobody will want to play us in the first round of the playoffs.
JD23UT - January 17, 2012 via iPhone app
yes!
I agree 100% its all about how we are winning. I know the schedule gets harder and I don’t see us winning 7 out of 8 the rest of the way. But we won’t start losing 7 out of 8 either.
Something to note only Portland and the Lakers have beaten more teams over. 500 than us,that must mean something.
dianaallen - January 17, 2012
I have them losing 8 in a row in February.
It’s possible that they could win @GSW on a back to back, @NY, @IND on a back to back, and/or @Mem & @NO in the midst of their back to back to back. It just seems like for each game, they’re more likely to lose.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
8 in a row seems a bit much
It’s highly possible that the Jazz struggle during that stretch—I expect them to—possibly going 2-6. But based on what I’ve seen lately, this team, while maybe overrated, is good enough not to lose 8 straight. Other than WAS, I don’t think any other team has lost 8 straight yet? Just shows how hard it is to lose that many games.
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
Which games do you see them winning?
I’m not saying it will absolutely happen, just that for each individual game, on paper I’d call it a loss.
They won the @Den game on a back to back, so it’s definitely possible for them to win East Coast back to backs. I just don’t know how likely it is. It’s just an absolutely brutal stretch.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
@MEM and @NO are winnable games for this team
Particularly if Randolph and Gordon are still out. Maybe @NY depending on what kind of state the Knicks are in then. I feel like the Jazz could go into MSG and beat them today. @GS is another winnable game if that was part of your 8. It just seems likely that they win at least one of those games.
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
I think @GS is the most winnable by far. But if they've got Curry and Ellis, they'll be trouble.
If one or both are out, then it’ll be a different story. Same goes for the Knicks and Melo & Amar’e.
Really, a whole lot of this depends on injuries, both for the Jazz and for the opposing teams.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
And I agree that if you look at them as a group, it seems likely they'll win one.
But if you look at them on paper, the most winnable game is probably @NY, which I think will be a really difficult matchup for the Jazz. @Mem is winnable too.
Hopefully they can scrape one of those out. But even if they don’t lose all 8, 2-6 is still a tough stretch to go through.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I definitely agree about how the team is playing.
But it depends on how guys respond to losing streaks. If everyone starts trying to put the team on their back, it could end really badly. Big Al and Devin both have the tendency to try to do too much. If they can weather the storms and keep playing team ball on offense and solid D, then they could definitely steal a playoff spot and make some noise.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I've been expecting a swoon at some point in the season before the season even began
and I haven’t backed off that prediction. I think we’ll walk away from this season encouraged, but I do think some losing days are ahead. With the brutal road schedules coming up, it’s unlikely the Jazz will be a winning team when all is said and done.
The silver lining to this is some sort of draft pick. I’d rather have the first rounder this year (even if it’s late lottery). Then, we’ll have no first round pick next year (unless the GSW pick gets pushed over to then), but a roster stacked full of young talent anyway.
flibbidy - January 17, 2012
I disagree with a couple things that zach lowe said
First, i don’t think devin harris is playing that bad, zach looks at the stats and says well devin isn’t scoring, what devin is doing is playing in the offense, he isn’t scoring very much but he isn’t taking many shots either. Second, i really do believe in our wings, they have stepped it up. 3rd if you disregard the first 4 games of al, you will see that he has improved alot on the assist side of things, this is what pleases me most. Speaking of which he didn’t get the assist for the hug moment, just criminal.
Also i have learned to never doubt paul millsap, he has improved every year and has added a nice dribble drive to his game this year. I bet he finishes this year with a per above 20.
Evans Almighty - January 17, 2012
Why does it have to be a 1st round sweep?
Why use the word sweep instead of lose in the question? I’m fine with throwing out the possibility of a Tebowesque first round victory but having the choice between a sweep and missing the playoffs makes the poll pretty biased.
Shiner Bock - January 17, 2012
To me, it felt like the point of the poll was “do you care more about making the playoffs or getting a pick?” adding wins into the factor makes it biased against the lottery option IMO.
JD23UT - January 17, 2012 via iPhone app
I think most of us who voted for the playoffs viewed it this way.
It depends on who they play of course, but I’d be surprised if the opposing team were able to sweep the Jazz in the 2 home games if the Jazz were good enough to pull off a playoff spot.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
Sad to say it,
but I kind of hope we dont make the playoffs this year. I really want at least one first rounder this year, and it’s looking like we wont get the GS pick. This draft is so deep that even a 14th pick could be a very solid player.
TurboJazz224 - January 17, 2012
This is my reasoning.
This is supposed to be such a deep draft. Ideally the Jazz get to keep the GS pick just outside the protected range.
BJInIndiana - January 17, 2012
The GS pick is truly up in the air at this point
Currently, they are 8th, which is exactly where we want them to finish. But it seems like it’ll be a season-long drama.
The one issue GS faces, aside from Curry’s health, is that they don’t face as many Eastern Conference teams as those currently above (below) them.
Ideally, I want the Jazz to make the playoffs and for GS to finish outside of the top 7.
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
Ideally, I want the Jazz to make the playoffs and for GS to finish outside of the top 7. This.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
1
I think we will have some losing streaks ahead. It’s to be expected. But I also think we could make the playoffs.
I didn’t vote, because I couldn’t decide.
SurlyMae - January 17, 2012
1) Feb 6-14 is the Jazz's first big test
If they can go 4-2 or better during this stretch, then I will be confident in their ability to make the playoffs. If not, then we probably won’t know if this team is playoff bound until after March 10. Their ability or inability to handle those road trips will be a big determining factor.
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
I think it starts on Feb 2 @ GSW, but at the very least, Feb 4 vs LAL.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I chose Feb. 6 because it's the start of 5 tough road games in 8 days
I think we have a good idea of how this team plays at home. We need to see what kind of fight they have on the road during those long stretches—especially against the good teams. The win @ DEN was nice, but can they maintain that level of competitiveness on the road on a consistent basis?
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
4.
I was thinking about the trade exception yesterday. from my arm chair I don’t see a player you could pick up from a trade that would be better than what we have. Are team has been playing pretty good we could pick up some specialists but few teams are going to give us an All-star talent for what we can offer. IMHO
neds - January 17, 2012
Exactly.
More likely for the Jazz to get a solid, high value player with the 2nd rounder than the trade exception, in my opinion.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
Of course, I don't think we even know what year the 2nd rounder is coming, do we?
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
2015
last time i heard
gubihero - January 17, 2012
5 - always hope to make the playoffs
When the Jazz made that big run to the conference finals in ’07, were they predicted to go that far? Or were they “a year off”? No, play for the here and now, never know when a top seed will get knocked off in the 1st round.
Spikedog - January 17, 2012
THIS ALWAYS
enough said
jazzed - January 17, 2012 via Android app
Trade Rumors
If we don’t make the playoffs, or even slump before the trade deadline, are we expecting the trade rumors to ramp up again like in the off-season?
rymoss - January 17, 2012
I would think so
There are few guys who will have expiring contracts next year and won’t be a part of the Jazz’s future. Also, I wouldn’t put it past the Jazz to trade CJ before the deadline this year to allow more PT to Burks. But only IF they go on a big slump before the deadline.
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
Trading CJ would be fine, I think.
But blowing up the team at the trade deadline would be terrible unless they get good, usable replacement pieces. Yet, I would say that it’s rather possible considering that I have them going 4-12 in the 16 games before the trade deadline. The schedule really starts evening out right at the trade deadline though, so I would hope that they’d give the team a chance to turn it around.
I think they could probably move CJ, Big Al, and Devin (and Tinsley, but who would want him) because I think Burks/Hayward/Tinsley can probably take CJ’s minutes and Earl’s backup minutes, Earl can play starter’s minutes for Devin, and the Jazz still have 3 excellent big guys and they could pick up Big Fes as an insurance big guy if they needed to.
But I hope they just leave the team together. They’re not in the luxury tax, I don’t think, and Big Al’s contract might be more valuable when it’s expiring.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
Definitely
I would prefer it if they keep their 4 bigs in tact this year. That is, unless there is a Rondo or Lowry deal on the table. :)
allen aoki - January 17, 2012
Trade deadline is Mar 15, not Feb 24.
I had it wrong. So ignore the first part of my analysis. We should definitely know by Mar 15 what kind of team they’ve got.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
Normally I gripe about how the NBA schedules the Jazz
But this year, I feel that it’s been to the Jazz’s benefit.
Earlier in the year, they were a total mess. But all these home games has given them a chance to gel and learn to play as a team. It’s given them confidence to take on the road and has taught them to lean on each other and play tough D so they don’t go down by double digits in the first 5 minutes of every game.
Hopefully they keep it up and continue to improve. They’ve got 8 games before the storm. It would be GREAT if they could keep the momentum rolling and steal 2 or 3 more of these games I have down as losses.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I think we will be Ok
I think they win either 6 or 7 games in February, followed by 11 in March. I think that will put them at or close to 30 wins by the end of March. I think they only win about 5 games in April, 6 if the Magic trade Howard and rebuild, so I think the Jazz finish around 35-31. I know I am optimistic, but I have them with that record without beating any winning teams on the road and with only winning a couple of home games against playoff teams. So I know they will lose a couple that they should win, but I am also guessing they will steal a couple that I don’t expect, like what they did Sunday night, so I don’t think we should finish with a winning record.
BobbyD31 - January 17, 2012
I have them up 2 games from my predictions so far.
It’d be great if they could keep surpassing my expectations.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
I meant to say I do think we should finish the remainder of the season with a winning record,
But overall I think we do end with a winning record of 35-31.
BobbyD31 - January 17, 2012
I think they'd make the playoffs with that record.
clarkpojo - January 17, 2012
Jazz look like they have gained some stability
It’s not easy for teams to win both back to backs especially the 2nd game on the road against a team with a very good home winning record.
I’d say the Jazz have stability this year compared to last year.
I don’t suspect any locker room drama or any sort of conflict within, which I think really hurt the Jazz last season.
5 – In my opinion, this is a sports. Jazz should play it honestly, instead of being calculative. Go out and do your best and complete and at the end of the day, the honest work they put in will be rewarded. Maybe it wont be this season, but good things will come, I believe if they keep working at it and grow as a team.
As for any missing pieces to the team, I don’t see much of a weakness at this point. We have possibly the 4 best big men combo in the league, we are dominating the paint, and can be dominate with any team. We have the best bench in the league (great pickup with Howard by the way). I’m willing to wait on Hayward to develop. He can be the next Horny, or Ginobili. Same goes for Favors and Kanter. Maybe a solid point guard might be the last piece but i’m content with Harris and Watson. Our guys are unselfish and they play hard. Millsap is becoming a legit star, one of the best players in the league.
Of course, in all honesty, the Jazz will face a tough challenge in feb and march. But I don’t see them bomb it like they did last season.
softdrinks - January 17, 2012
I agree with this
We as fans are easy to advocate tanking. But we already have 3 lotto picks in 2 seasons, favors kanter n Hayward. Let’s not be greedy here, people. We could tank rock bottom this season n get a pick, but wait why stop tanking, next years draft will also looked good. Hey let’s tank again, who knows we luck out n get a Jordan 2.0. Oh sheet, we only got quality hard working players? No Jordan or kobe-esque players? Let’s tank again! Cmon which would u rather choose getting swept in 1st round 3 seasons in a row, or keep collecting picks? I know idrather lose big in regular seasons forever outside the playoffs, why bother risking losing out on the sweet sweet draft picks when I know they gonna get swept in 1st round? /face palm
chiselmcsue - January 17, 2012
I'm not easy to advocate tanking. I hate it.
Even if they were last in the NBA, I would root for the team to win games.
JazzHype - January 17, 2012
As for the playoffs ...
I would be very surprised if the Jazz end the year with a better record than the Mavs, Blazers, and Nuggets. That puts them in a fight for spot number 8. Memphis, Houston, and Minny are the most likely other teams also to be fighting for that spot.
I don’t know. With or without Z-Bo, I think Memphis has underachieved so far. I really thought they’d do better than they have been. Houston’s current record is distorted by a brutal 4-games-in-5-nights stretched that they lost all games (LAC, LAL, OKCx2 … all on the road) — a stretch I wouldn’t expect the Jazz to handle any better. Minny’s been much improved thus far.
It will be very interesting.
Yucca Man - January 17, 2012
i agree with this and softdrinks as well
We should play to win and all that. But as a fan it’d sure hurt to miss out on a 1rst rounder in this draft. Definitely want us winning buuuuut. Yeah
TBKIII - January 17, 2012 via mobile
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