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Jazz Route 66 – December Review / January Preview

Whopping four games this last month, and three butt whippings. It really sucks that the month ended on a Sunday because it just looks like spam now, because I’m trying to put things out on time. Well, during a regular month I’ll recap the most important things that happened: important games, transactions, trades, rotation changes, injuries, and of course, our continuing record. There are only 66 games this year, hence the name.

More Jibber-Jabber about December and a preview of January after the jump . . .

Star-divide

My prediction

I thought the Jazz would finish December 1 – 3, and it actually happened. How unlikely is that? I figured that we’d beat Denver and lost to Philly, but the opposite happened. Still, three butt kickings and a solid homegame that we failed to build off of. December sucked, and in a way, 2011 was really a bad year for the Jazz. I am glad it is over . . .

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Next on the Roadmap . . .

Is the wonderful month of January. We play 12 games at home and 3 on the road (15 total).

The BEST thing about this month is the dearth of home games. WE have a three game home stretch; a game away, another three game home stretch; a game away; a four game home stretch; a game away; and then another home stretch to end the month. The lack of travel days, and number of two days off between games (4 times this month) mean that the Jazz can schedule more practices, video sessions, and independent work out sessions for players. This is why I always suggested that January was going to be our preseason training camp. We’re going to learn a lot about our team this month, and our team will learn a lot about what we’re trying to do. Coaches will make smarter rotation changes. Players will develop chemistry with one another. And, who knows, we may even seen Alec Burks play more than 6.0 mpg this month!!???!!!

January’s ease is absolutely necessary; as we look bad right now, and because we need to get this stuff in now, because the rest of the season will have way less time for practice / way less home games. If the Jazz coaches eff up January then our entire season is toast. Forget playoffs, I did months ago; I mean in terms of doing something good during that critical period in a young player’s NBA development to give them training, teaching, a comfort zone, and then confidence. That has to happen now, because it’s not going to happen in February when we’re on the road and travelling every other day.

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Key Games:

The first Key game is the game at home tomorrow hosting the New Orleans Hornets. Not because it’s the first game of collective Post-Deron Williams / Post-Chris Paul eras; it’s a big game because they have Chris Kaman and Emeka Okafor. The Lakers didn’t have Andrew Bynum when we played them. The Nuggets only had Nene. The Spurs are a bigman away from being a true contender. And Spencer Hawes isn’t going to make you think he’s Mutombo out there. New Orleans has some legit bigs who should, and will, test ours. We usually beat them, but this year it’s going to be a challenge – especially with how we are playing right now. This game will also be our 3rd game in 4 nights.

The next big game is the home game against Cleveland on the 10th. We all felt pretty happy after beating up on them last year at home, if you are buying tickets to see the Jazz this is the game you want. They don’t seem to be that much better than last year, and we’re a lot worse. Triple overtime NBA classic in the making. Also the next game the Jazz play some non-Lob City team from LA.

The game on January 14th is a home game hosting the New Jersey Nets – which is like a home game for the visitors as well. It’s on NBA-TV, so I’m making space on my DVR already for bad commentators.

The last key game of this month is on January 30th against Portland. They are our rivals (more so than the wolves would be), and we faced them twice already (in the preseason). They should be the measuring stick for us all season long, as a young-ish team (kinda) who made the playoffs last year.

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Did I forget anything? Oh yeah, I guess there’s that whole Jimmer Fredette thingy two nights earlier, that’s also on NBA-TV. We better win that game, but I fail to see who can contain Tyreke Evans and their three point shooting phenomenon.

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Fearless Prediction:

The Jazz will go 7 – 8 this month. But the long term gains will help us more than our record will.

1 recs  |  37 comments

Comments

If some serious changes aren't made

in the next week, I fear they won’t happen with KOC and Corbin at the helm. KOC has pulled off some amazing roster moves, and I really really really want to like Ty, but so far both have been a huge disappointment. I’m hoping that its KOC pressuring Ty to play the lineups he has been, and not Ty himself, because if a bunch of fans and stats junkies can see these problems, but the Head Coach cannot, its going to be a rough period until we get a new coach. Props for posting as always, much appreciated.

thanks man

and I agree. i think Ty is a smart guy too. but the jazz front office / brain trust have a plan that we don’t know about yet. they have a way of doing things that we don’t understand.

i guess we gotta give ’em benefit of the doubt here.

rec'd - this comment

even if the front office does see the same things we do – we have to give them more than a frigging week and four games to make changes. hell, i’d give them the whole month of January to continue as is for a number of possible reasons.

so what happens to some of the guys trade values the minute we throw them to the bench for the sake of youth? anyone considered that? and as to Burks – anyone thought about why he might not be playing? i’ll just toss that one out there to chew on for a bit. i’m just saying, very, very, little time has passed and there is A LOT we don’t see. let’s give it a little time maybe?

We are worried about Bell and Howard's trade value?

IMO those are by the two biggest problems when it comes to vets getting playing time over young guys, and they are virtually untradable. I don’t particularly like trotting out Harris or Jefferson, but I understand it. We don’t have a legit starting PG. I like Earl as much as the next person (probably even irrationally more than the next), but he is a good backup. I would love to see a starting lineup of Millsap and Favors with Kanter getting the majority of backup minutes, but you have to get rid of Jefferson first. And to do that unfortunately he has to start and put up his 20-10 (joke). I worry though that the FO doesn’t really plan on doing this, who knows anymore.

Raja and Howard should be 11th and 12th on the depth chart. That might be giving them too much credit. There is no reason whatsoever that a lottery pick, who has amazing potential, should be getting 2 minutes of garbage time, or DNPs. I want Ty to succeed but this is not acceptable for any reason whatsoever. It is entirely indefensible. ESPECIALLY after he said that rotation spots would be earned not handed out. Bleh, totally disgusted now.

good clarification

speaking specifically to Al and Harris. I think the season being as early as it is, there is no reason NOT to trot out Howard at this point to see what he can bring. Hayward is getting his 30 minutes a game and our wing play has been atrocious across the board. they brought Howard in as a inexpensive option to see if he can help and that is what they are checking out – as the should.

why is Burks not playing? I’m saying there could (and probably is) a reason (attitude perhaps? cocky? smack in practice?) who knows, i certainly don’t. but there is most likely something. a veteran will and should always win out over that crap – especially with the jazz.

why did they play Evil Wes Matthews as a rookie? why aren’t they playing Burks? other than we are only four game into the season? time will tell . . .

good points all around,

however; signing Howard as an unrestricted free agent, with the hopes of playing him in order to up his trade value so we can ship him off for something else is — well — a risky gamble that I think our conservative front office may or may not be capable of pulling off.

I think that it’s easier, for all egos involved, to go with the vets early, and ease the youth into the bigger roles as the season goes on; instead of the opposite (going youth first, vets then get upset, and you start playing them more, and then the younger guys get frustrated)

that said, I have no clue what the hell the jazz are doing with favors. at this pace he’s going to be on the lakers in no time.

i agree 100% playing the vets and easing the youths as the season goes

and i don’t think they are trying to use Howard as a trade piece, just trying to see if he can help at all . . . the guy was an all-star. it’s worth a shot for a couple weeks and see what he can bring.

as to Favors, that was just wrong and hopefully the great anti-jinx of all time. i’m hoping it’s just a front-office hold cards to your chest thing as they look to get the most out of Al? i hope so . . .

They played Wesley Matthews because all the other wings were injured.

How quick we are to forget.

Wes would not have made the team had KK and CJ both been out the first month of the year. It wasn’t a case of playing a rookie who earned it. It was playing a rookie because there weren’t any other options. He was intended to be a placeholder until KK and CJ returned.

i don't remember the specifics but you make a good point if that was the case.

i’m saying however, that there might also be more to it than that. we don’t know.

Ty was pretty adamant at the beginning of the season that spots would be open to whomever. everyone was pretty high on Burks during the short training camp and since then something has seemed to happen . . . so who knows. i just hope if his attitude or the likes did something to get him in the dog house. he does what he needs to do to get the hell out soon.

I don't know if this is a counter or just me bouncing my own ideas off you.

I just think it really isn’t fair to, specifically CJ, to be giving Howard the minutes we are. He doesn’t add much (anything really?) to the team IMO. He is at best a warm body to soak up minutes at a position we are weak in. I was worried that Howard would affect Hayward’s minutes, to this point in the season it hasn’t. But it is probably directly related to Burks not getting any playing time. I know Burks and Howard aren’t the same position. But in the Jazz system (no idea how relevant that even is anymore) wings are fairly interchangeable position wise. While Burks may play some point in the future, be nice to see him play any position at this point honestly, as of right now he is for sure a wing who can create for himself. Which is essentially what Howard and CJ are. Well Howard has for sure cut into CJ’s minutes, which as I see it has relegated Burks to head cheer leader. I’m not really cool with this.

As to CJ

or any of the wings losing PT to Howard – until freaking someone can really step up at the wing – I say why not? give the guy his shot. he deserves it as much as anyone at this point doesn’t he? Hell, we do to if there might be any chance he can help.

Is it taking away from Burks? Yeah, but again, there might be more to that, and shouldn’t a past all-star free agent get his shot to contribute before a rookie?

So at this point I don’t have any problems giving Howard some run. We want FA’s who might be able to contribute to feel like they want to come here. Not give him that shot before a rook doesn’t set a very good precedent.

I am fine giving Howard a shot.

And once again it is in a position where we are limited, so whatever. You are right that CJ has never really consistently stepped up, but how much of that is because he has never had a consistent role or playing time? Bringing in Howard ahead of him just feeds into that.

But I guess I totally disagree with you that we should be giving a has been (yes I think Howard’s best years are WAY past him), who has never played a meaningful minute for the Jazz, playing time over a LOTTERY PICK.

And until they give me a good reason why Burks doesn’t see playing time, I can only attribute it to incompetence, and that is on the part of the coaching staff or the FO, whoever is behind these awful rotations.

I don't have a problem w/ Howard getting PT either

As far as I’m concerned, he’s the best SF so far.

As far as I'm concerned

Hayward has been the best SF so far, by a lot.

Sure, Hayward ought to be a guard, but whatever.

But if Howard plays more time than Hayward we ought to simply riot.

And really what’s the point anyway? The Jazz aren’t a good team. Not even a playoff team. Maybe (emphasis on maybe) giving Howard 30 minutes per game will add three or four wins. But who cares? They’re sill a lottery team. And the young guys haven’t been able to use the PT to get better. And Howard will be gone next year.

Playing Howard is ridiculous, because it helps the team accomplish nothing. Literally, nothing.

THIS

This was the problem with signing him in the first place. It makes zero sense in our long-term plans.

You are right to be less knee-jerk than me

I’d counter with one thing: it took them only two games to yank Favors out of the starting lineup.

And it’s not really 4 games. It’s been almost thirty. That’s what they’ve had to see Sap/Al/Raja/Harris.

well Favors didn't respond very well last night

i don’t think Favors needs to be a starter to get his minutes. Al and Sap are the potential trade pieces. best to keep them there for that reason imo for now (especially Al).

and you and i differ as to the 30 games this season and last. too many injuries and upheaval for me to have felt last season was a fair assessment. you were right that it was however . . . at least to this point.

Do you realize

Favors scored more effectivley than Al last night? And rebounded at a better rate? And had fewer fouls (by a lot)?

And last night was Favors’ worst game of the year (by far) and Al’s best game of the year (by far)?

yes

but i don’t think Favors should start over Al – it doesn’t make any sense if we hope to move Al. if we want Al to have value let him be a black hole for a couple of months and get his 20 and 10.

What does anyone think we could seriously get for Jefferson this season?

Not much in my opinion. His best value would be a big expiring contract next season.

Does it matter?

This is my big question. If he’s in the way of the development of the young guys, does it really matter what we get back? Minnesota ended up perfectly fine and happy getting virtually nothing in return.

To me his play is so detrimental to the team’s success that just moving him will solve a huge set of problems.

I agree with you on that.

I would take back a ham sandwich if we could find a willing suitor. I just question those who think we would get anything back if we traded him right now.

Additionally,

I would be fine with having him ride the bench and then trading him or just letting him walk after next season.

Yucca - you are a passionate dude

write well, and make great arguments. but i’m sure as hell glad you’re not running the team bro! ;)

I see 6-9.

But young teams, if that is even what we are anymore, play much better home than on the road. So it could easily be 7-8, or even a winning record.

Thanks for the breakdown.

We are a young team if we go with Favors/Hayward/Kanter/Burks

But that’s not what the team’s doing. Al’s an 8-year vet. Raja’s in his 12th year. Millsap’s in his 7th. Devin’s in his 8th year. And Howard (you know he’s going to start within a week) has played 9 years.

This is a veteran team in its prime. Ugh.

I want to throw something at my TV every time the media calls this a young team with growing pains

It isn’t. It’s almost as veteran and experienced as the freaking Spurs.

Ok I laughed at the veteran team in its prime thing.

I might be a bit of a masochist.

and i laughed at your being a masochist

very funny

You laugh at my pain?

That’s just sick man.

bah wha ha ha ha

;)

Howard starting is

Fine by me as long as it places Bell on the bench. I think a Harris, Hayward, Howard lineup is much better then a Harris, Bell, Hayward lineup.

I'm fine with Howard, under a few conditions:

He’s not playing half the game, or more.

He’s not jacking up 16 shots while shooting in the 30 fg% range.

He’s not playing out of the offense.

He’s not playing poor defense.

He doesn’t continue to miss fastbreak layups at the rate of 1 blown every 2 games.

I agree with all of those except the playing half the game or more part.

If he’s playing well, I have no problem keeping him out there.

The rest though… spot on.

So here's my January

Ws vs:
NO, Mil, Mem, Cle, NJ, LAC, Min, Tor, Sacto

Ls vs:
GS, LA, Den, Dal, Dal, Por

Overall: 9-6

It’s funny that some of these games are so huge already, but that Milwaukee game tomorrow night is a MUST WIN. Back end of a back to back, but they really need it.

I’m not that confident in the 1/14 vs NJ or 1/17 vs LAC, but they’re winnable games that the Jazz really need. I think Philly is better than both of those teams. This has to be a good month if the Jazz are going to have 20+ wins this season. They could be facing a really really bad stretch at the beginning of February. I have that month pegged as a 1-8 start, but I could definitely see it being 0-9, and a 10-game losing streak including 1/30 vs Portland.

five wins

this month as they continue to work through rotations and get the direction figured out. and i’d be okay with that.

scary, huh

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